By now pretty much every firm has weighed in on what they expect in markets next year (all but one : solid but less spectacular stock-market gains).
But a special credit goes to the team that put together the macro outlook at Nomura, which not only identified what it perceived to be the tail risks — that is, surprises in either direction — for markets in 2025 but also asked ChatGPT to do so. You can look at the two side-by-side. And for the really curious, MarketWatch went and asked other AI engines (and got fairly similar results) — here’s what Gemini and Command-R have to say.
There’s a lot of common ground between AI and the humans, as they both brought geopolitics, cyber security, debt concerns, and tech issues to the fore. Perhaps because of recency bias, ChatGPT is fearful of what COVID brought — the pandemic itself and the related supply-chain disruptions. The Nomura team captures more Trump 2.0 concerns: trade wars, Fed hikes, possible loss of Fed independence.
The Nomura team puts both AI bust and boom as tail risks, which does feel about right. One added AI concern, not addressed by either robot or human here, is the scaling trouble that the chatbots of late have encountered — they aren’t getting smarter with more firepower.
It’s also noticeable how they looked at energy in completely different ways — ChatGPT is fearful of supply shock, while the Nomura team fears a glut.
The markets
Stock-market futures ES00 NQ00 rose. Bitcoin BTCUSD cooled a little after reaching over $106,000 during the weekend.
|
Key asset performance |
Last |
5d |
1m |
YTD |
1y |
|
S&P 500 |
6051.09 |
-0.64% |
3.07% |
26.86% |
28.22% |
|
Nasdaq Composite |
19,926.72 |
0.34% |
6.67% |
32.74% |
34.51% |
|
10-year Treasury |
4.387 |
18.40 |
-3.40 |
50.61 |
44.81 |
|
Gold |
2678.4 |
-0.17% |
2.38% |
29.28% |
31.22% |
|
Oil |
70.54 |
3.51% |
2.11% |
-1.11% |
-3.22% |
|
Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points |
|||||
The buzz
Axon Enterprise AXON, Palantir Technologies PLTR, and somewhat controversially MicroStrategy MSTR are joining the Nasdaq 100 , replacing Illimuna ILMN, Super Micro Computer SMCI and Moderna MRNA. Super Micro hired Evercore to raise capital, according to a Bloomberg report .
Honeywell International HON says it’s now considering separating out its aerospace business , a move that won the backing of activist investor Elliott Investment Management.
The Empire State manufacturing index plunged 31 points to a flat reading in December. Flash manufacturing and services PMI are due shortly after the open. Chinese retail sales came in below expectations.
Best of the web
The Fed’s game plan on interest-rate cuts keeps shifting.
The drugs young bankers use to get through the day and the night.
It’s time to break up Big Medicine.
The chart
It looks like wages might be heating up — from JPMorgan, this chart plots the compensation plan subcomponent of the National Federation of Independent Business small-business optimism index — moved ahead by six months — with that of the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker. The firm’s market intelligence group is bullish on stocks but says a scenario of higher rates and lower equities should be hedged.
Top tickers
Here were the most active stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Eastern.
|
Ticker |
Security name |
|
TSLA |
Tesla |
|
NVDA |
Nvidia |
|
MSTR |
MicroStrategy |
|
PLTR |
Palantir Technologies |
|
GME |
GameStop |
|
SMCI |
Super Micro Computer |
|
AVGO |
Broadcom |
|
TSM |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing |
|
AMZN |
Amazon.com |
|
AMD |
Advanced Micro Devices |
Random reads
Orcas have resumed their 1980s habit of wearing dead salmon on their heads like hats.
Mysterious googly eyes have been appearing on public art in Oregon.
Changing times — the over-24s are now allowed to compete in the Miss France competition , as the Netherlands scraps their event.
