(Bloomberg) -- Bond traders are on high alert for a fresh dose of inflation data out on Wednesday that could determine whether Federal Reserve officials cut or hold interest rates next week.
A mixed November jobs report helped to send two-year Treasuries lower for back-to-back weeks, and traders have subsequently raised their odds for a December rate reduction to almost 80% — but the reading on November’s consumer prices remains crucial.
“This time around CPI is more important than the payroll data,” said John Madziyire, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard, adding that recent job figures have been distorted by the effects of hurricanes and labor strikes.
The yield on two-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.16% in early trading Wednesday.
Madziyire said the October report surprised to the upside and, overall, has been “moving away” from the Fed’s 2% inflation target. “If we do get anything signaling that it detracted further,” he said, “then the Fed probably seriously will think about pausing in December.”
“Inflation is probably going to be a little bit more bumpy,” said Bret Barker, co-head of global rates at the TCW Group Inc., which is long Treasuries in the two- to five-year maturity sector. The median forecast from a recent Bloomberg survey predicts that core consumer prices — seen as the best gauge of underlying inflation — rose 0.3% in November, the same pace as a month earlier. This would put the annualized rate of price growth at 3.3%.
Investors have positioned themselves for uncertainty. A weekly survey from JPMorgan Chase & Co. on Tuesday showed the bank’s clients have shifted to a neutral stance on Treasuries from the strongest long bias this year, pulling back after a three-week rally. The 10-year yield was flat at 4.22%.
Before Fed officials went into their pre-meeting communication blackout period this week, most signaled that they were data-dependent, even if they were leaning toward a December rate cut. Traders are pricing in about 20 basis points worth of easing by the end of the year — and a cumulative 83 basis points by the end of 2025.
