And here is how Nvidia’s earnings per share have increased over the same eight-quarter run:

Great expectations for the semiconductor industry in 2025

While Nvidia has seen explosive sales growth this year, that trend hasn’t applied equally throughout the sector. Marvell Technology Inc. MRVL, for instance, is levered to the AI boom, but the company is expected to see essentially flat sales this calendar year as other areas of its business, including enterprise networking, have registered sharp declines. But the consensus among analysts is for revenue to surge nearly 36% calendar 2025. (All estimates in this article are for calendar years, with adjustments made by FactSet for companies whose fiscal reporting periods don’t match the calendar.)

Companies with even more depressed profiles could see big returns to growth. Take Texas Instruments Inc. TXN, which is expected to log an 11.5% sales decline this year before rebounding to 11.5% growth in 2025. Chip players exposed to recently troubled areas such as analog, industrial and automotive markets will get easier comparisons in the new year, while business conditions in some pockets could improve as well.

The consensus among analysts polled by FactSet is for the companies in the PHLX Semiconductor Index SOX to show a weighted 23.1% increase in sales per share in 2025, compared with a12.5% increase for the S&P 500 information technology sector and a 5.6% sales growth rate for the full S&P 500.

When it comes to profits, the differences in estimates are also dramatic. Analysts expect the PHLX Semiconductor group to increase earnings per share by 37.8% next year, compared with a 22.5% increase for the tech sector and a 14.8% increase for the full index. Even that last figure is impressive, and backs Black Rock Chief Executive Larry Fink’s opinion that companies are “ catching up ” to high price-to-earnings valuations for their stocks.

Screening the semiconductor industry

For a broad screen of the semiconductor industry, the initial group included 63 companies listed on U.S. exchanges, starting with the 30 in the PHLX Semiconductor Index and adding 33 more companies in the S&P Composite 1500 Index XX:SP1500 that are in the semiconductor industry, as determined by FactSet, or in the Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment Global Industry Classification Standard group. The S&P Composite 1500 is made up of the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400 MID and the S&P Small Cap 600 SML.

We trimmed the list to 57 companies covered by at least five analysts working for brokerage firms polled by FactSet.

Then we did two screens.

The first screen is for chip makers expected to increase sales the most during calendar 2025. We are using calendar-year estimates, as adjusted by FactSet for companies (such as Nvidia) whose fiscal reporting periods don’t match the calendar.

Here are the 10 semiconductor companies expected to show the largest revenue increases in 2025:

Nvidia tops the list with analysts expecting revenue to increase nearly 55% in calendar 2025. That’s admittedly down from the 112% growth expected for calendar 2024 but simultaneously illustrates the power of Nvidia’s business, as the company could post industry-leading growth at scale and against tough comparisons.

The next screen centers on analysts’ opinions of the stocks themselves.

Going back to our trimmed list of 57 semiconductor stocks, 10 that are rated a “buy” or the equivalent by at least 85% of analysts polled by FactSet also have double-digit price increases expected. Here they are, sorted by the upside potential based on consensus price targets:

Many of those favored names saw big gains in 2024 as well, though some, like Micron Technology MU, have failed to beat the market on a year-to-date basis. With Micron, many analysts see a favorable memory cycle ahead, helped by strong demand for high-bandwidth memory, which has AI applications.

“We feel the company continues to be well-positioned with its HBM product offering and roadmap,” Piper Sandler analyst Harsh Kumar wrote recently.

The potential for upside in many pockets of the chip universe could be comfort to investors disappointed by the performance of the broader sector this year. While the PHLX Semiconductor Index is up 21.6% on the year, the S&P 500 is ahead 28.5%.

Any stock screen is only a snapshot. If you are considering any individual stocks for investment, you should do your own research to form your own opinions about how likely the companies are to remain competitive over the next decade. One way to begin your research is to click the tickers for more information.

Read: Tomi Kilgore’s guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page

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