Bitcoin's price has fallen sharply, dropping over 5.6% to $92,774 as of Nov. 26, following a historic high of $99,000 on Nov. 22. Analysts note this decline stems from activity by long-term holders rather than exchange-traded funds (ETFs) or institutional investors. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, explained , "I see a lot of CT baffled/frustrated as to how Saylor can buy $5B of BTC but price doesn’t move up—which is same thing I hear sometimes about ETFs after big flows. Here’s data showing what I’ve long been saying: the call is coming from inside the house, it’s long-term holders.”
On-chain data supports these findings, showing that long-term holders sold 128,000 BTC while U.S. spot ETFs absorbed 90% of the selling pressure. Kyle du Plessis, a crypto trader, remarked on X, “Strong institutional demand is fueling BTC’s rally, bringing it closer to the $100K milestone.”
Broader market trends have also exerted pressure. Donald Trump’s tariff hikes targeting China, Mexico and Canada have strengthened the U.S. dollar, putting downward pressure on both Bitcoin and equity markets. Altcoins like Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin have also faced steep corrections, dropping between 5% and 10% in the past 24 hours.
Despite the downturn, Bitcoin remains in a bullish phase. Metrics such as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and Puell Multiple indicate continued upward potential, according to CryptoQuant data. Independent analyst MAC_D noted , “This correction occurred due to leverage overheating, as open interest and estimated leverage ratio reached annual highs. Therefore, a 10-20% correction can be seen as a natural phenomenon.” The estimated leverage ratio across all exchanges stands at 0.24, a high not seen since August 2023, underscoring the need for potential deleveraging.
Accumulation by major holders persists, bolstering the long-term outlook. Santiment reported that wallets holding at least 10 BTC accumulated an additional 63,922 coins in November, worth approximately $6.06 billion. The firm stated that any price dip will likely be temporary as long as these large investors maintain their positions. Additionally, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bullish divergence, suggesting a potential rebound to $95,000-$96,000 in the short term.
While Bitcoin’s path to $100,000 remains intact, analysts predict volatility ahead. Bitcoin custody firm Theya’s head of growth, Joe Consorti, noted that Bitcoin has closely mirrored global liquidity trends with a 70-day lag, suggesting a potential 20-25% correction may still occur. However, these fluctuations are seen as part of the broader market cycle, with analysts emphasizing the importance of accumulation during such corrections.
