As the crypto industry gears up for the 2024 election, there’s a growing narrative that a win for former President Donald Trump could be a boon for Bitcoin and the broader digital asset space.
With the Biden administration’s SEC Chair, Gary Gensler, often seen as a roadblock to crypto innovation, many in the space are hoping for a policy shift. But Custodia Bank CEO Caitlin Long isn’t necessarily convinced that a change in presidents — by itself — will be the fix many are hoping for.
"He had a very anti-crypto Secretary of Treasury, [Steve] Mnuchin, in his first term” Long explained in a recent Coinage interview. She emphasized the importance of appointments like the Treasury Secretary in shaping the regulatory landscape for crypto. “It is going to matter who Trump puts in as Treasury secretary because that's going to dominate the decisions. A lot of the policy is made out of the Treasury Department because that's the IRS, the OCC, FinCEN."
According to Long, Trump’s rumored choice of Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, raises some eyebrows. “What do you think Jamie Dimon would do? Would he help any of the small startups? No. He loves the big banks,” Long pointed out, highlighting a potential disconnect between the hopes of crypto enthusiasts and the realities of traditional finance.
Trump’s potential cabinet choices bring to light a broader debate within the crypto community: the divide between Wall Street-driven crypto adoption and the philosophical underpinnings of decentralization. As Long put it, “There's a real split emerging in the Bitcoin crowd of the sort of pro-Wall Street, 'rah rah number go up, we’re just here to trade,' and then those who are philosophically committed to decentralization."
Interestingly, Trump’s transition team already reflects this divide. On one hand, there’s Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, a major player in the crypto space due to his firm’s involvement with providing custody for Tether’s billions of dollars in treasury assets. On the other hand, there's Tulsi Gabbard, a former Congresswoman who Long described as “committed to free speech” and “one of us, philosophically.” Long pointed out that it’s promising to see both figures stepping up, but the contrast between their approaches is stark.
“It's great that they're both pro-crypto. One is really committed to decentralization. The other is the CEO of a Wall Street firm that's a primary [broker dealer.]”
The broader concern, according to Long, is that while Trump’s rhetoric might sound supportive of crypto, the details of who he appoints and how they craft regulation will matter more than any pro-crypto sound bites. Of course, President Trump generated plenty of those at Bitcoin Nashville when he promised to make the U.S. the "crypto capital of the planet."
As the crypto industry looks ahead to the 2024 election, the question remains: Will Trump’s return be the silver bullet for crypto many are hoping for, or will it simply reinforce the power of traditional financial players at the expense of smaller, more innovative projects?
For Long, the answer depends on one thing: who gets to make the decisions.
