If the U.S. Federal Reserve slashes interest rates for the first time in four years later this month, bitcoin analysts at Bitfinex forecast the price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency may potentially drop by up to 20%.

“This is because the positive correlation with traditional asset classes, such as U.S. equities, indicate that global economic conditions will continue to influence bitcoin’s price for now,” the firm told TheStreet Crypto.

There are a variety of factors leading to the change in bitcoin prices, from signs of cooling inflation, signals of a weakening job market, and a statement last month from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell about the looming cuts. “The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.”

While bitcoin has normally underperformed in September, Bitfinex analysts underscored that a negative outcome was not guaranteed and that positive price momentum was still possible.

“September has traditionally been a volatile month for bitcoin, with an average return of 4.78% and a typical peak-to-trough decline of 24.6%,” Bitfinex analysts said. “This volatility is often attributed to the end-of-the-summer trading lull, as fund managers return from vacation and human-driven trading activity increases. The anticipated rate cut in September adds another layer of complexity, potentially exacerbating the marketʼs volatility.”

“This historical price action for September also aligns with our view of a projected 20% drop in bitcoin prices following a rate cut. However, itʼs worth noting that historical trends also show that when August ends in the red, September has occasionally defied expectations and delivered positive returns,” they added. “This could provide a counterargument to the assumption that September will necessarily be a bearish month for bitcoin.”