(Bloomberg) -- US gas producers could gain Asian market share at the expense of Australian exporters in the long run, as countries running a trade surplus with the US, like Japan and South Korea, are compelled to buy more American LNG to avoid Trump’s tariffs, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Chinese buyers have already agreed to buy a combined 14 million tons of US LNG from 2026, 50% higher than the previous record in 2021, BI analysts including Chia Chen and Henik Fung said in a note on Tuesday. China might add more shipments to negotiate favorable tariffs with Trump’s administration, they said.

Trump’s reversal of the US LNG export ban will likely also revive new gas projects and pave the way for stronger export growth. Currently, surplus supply in Asia, China’s faltering recovery and Japan’s nuclear restart could cap Asian LNG prices at $10/mmbtu, the analysts said.

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