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The Indian equity market’s reliance on domestic investors has never been greater as unabated foreign fund selling and rising global volatility dent the appeal of local shares.
Global investors have pulled out $6 billion from Indian stocks this month, pushing the NSE Nifty 500 Index toward its worst start in nine years. Domestic institutions and retail investors remained buyers, with net purchases touching $8 billion during the period, further strengthening their position as the key driver of the market.
Local investors’ faith in the nation’s equities is crucial as the market risks losing its luster after nine straight years of gains. They are providing a cushion to Indian equities at a time when lofty valuations, slowing corporate earnings and heightened uncertainties under Donald Trump’s presidency make global flows volatile.
“Domestic flows are supporting India’s equity valuations and have become the bedrock of the market,” said Kunal Vora, India strategist at BNP Paribas SA. Local money has ensured large supply coming to market during the years of fairly strong foreign selling and will be “extremely important” this year, he said.
A greater participation of mutual funds, insurance firms and retail investors in the Indian stock market has made India one of the top five markets globally despite waning ownership of foreigners.
Inflows into recurring plans offered by mutual funds emerged as key support for the market. The sustained weakness in Indian equities will test their resilience over the next few months, according to analysts at Citigroup Inc.
The benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index has fallen more than 11% from its September peak, with weak corporate results and expectations of a rotation toward China after Trump’s softer tariff approach dashing hopes of a near-term revival.
Indian shares still remain the world’s most expensive just behind the US, trading at close to 19 times forward earnings. That may not dissuade local investors from amping up their bets on Indian equities, according to Kotak Institutional Equities.
The continued buying by domestic institutions “reflects their high conviction about decent returns from the market,” analysts including Sanjeev Prasad wrote in a note Wednesday. “Retail investors will continue to pour money into domestic equity mutual funds, as they seem to have a price-agnostic investment philosophy.”
--With assistance from Chiranjivi Chakraborty.