BofA’s Hartnett Says Trump Trade to Shield US Stocks From Plunge

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  • Jan 16, 2025

(Bloomberg) -- Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely protect US stocks from a big selloff, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists, as investors focus on his protectionist agenda and proposals for lower corporate taxes.

Trump is set to be sworn in as the 47th US president on Monday, and has reiterated his focus on core priorities such as raising tariffs, cutting taxes and cracking down on undocumented migrants.

US stocks are “protected by Trump” from downside, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a note, although he doesn’t expect sharp gains either due to risks including high concentration in mega-cap technology stocks, valuations and investor positioning.

The S&P 500 initially rallied following Trump’s election win in November, with domestically focused small-cap stocks outperforming, on bets that his proposals would boost corporate earnings at a time when economic growth remains resilient.

While the index faltered last month after hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, recent data showing cooling inflation has reignited bets on interest rate-cuts. The benchmark index is tracking its best weekly advance since the November election as bond yields retreated.

Hartnett — who took a neutral tone on stocks last year — said if the peak in yields and “Trump 2.0” failed to lift small-cap stocks above a 2021 record high that would drive asset allocators to cut overweight positioning in stocks.

His team suggests being long on international stocks like Europe, China and emerging markets amid policy easing in those regions. He also recommends buying rate-sensitive stocks like homebuilders, utilities, financials and REITs as the 30-year Treasury yield has peaked below 5%.

The bank’s monthly global fund manager survey — which polls investors on allocation and sentiment — is due on Tuesday.

--With assistance from Jan-Patrick Barnert.